Monday, February 25, 2008

Another comparision of statistics

I recently read an article on the decline of Tendulkar, particularly during the last 7 years or so. I always used to think that Sachin plays a lot for himself and not the team, which was reinforced by the collection of going out in the 90's. But then I decided to use the admirable Cricinfo Statsguru and check out a few facts myself.
Lets see ODI's first.

As an index of comparision, I used Ricky Ponting as many old timers constantly mark him out as the best batsman in the world currently. I also put Jack Kallis and the writer's own favourite, Rahul Dravid for good measure. Also, I've only taken matches against the top 8 teams. (ie: not Bangladesh and Zimbabwe) Lets see how these four compare against each other while chasing totals (ie: batting in the second innings) in the last 7 years.

Ponting has 2098 runs at an average of 44.63 with 5 centuries and 12 half centuries. Tendulkar has 2442 runs at an average of 38.15 with 2 hundreds and 17 50's.
Kallis has 2472 runs at an average of 49.44 with 5 hundreds and 15 50's.Dravid has 2573 runs at an average of 39.58 with 2 hudnreds and 22 fifties.
Tendulkar seems to be the worst of the lot but these statistics hide not outs. The not outs in order have been 16, 7, 18, 13.

With Dravid, Ponting and Kallis as one down players, it is obviously easier for them to remain not out as compared to an opener. And the 17 fifties hide 4 90+ scores. Dravid has only one 80+ fifty. So, there doesn't seem to be anything to suggest that Tendulkar isn't good while chasing. But there remains the crucial aspect of winning the match. Unfortunately, here Tendulkar fails. He just has an average of 45.13 in chasing matches which India won with half the hundreds and half the fifties. Ponting has an amazing average of 66.96 with the same amount of hundreds and only 1 less half century. Kallis has an average of 66.24 with 2 less hundreds and 3 less fifties. Whereas Dravid has an averaeg of 57.38 with the same amount of hundreds and 7 less fifties. Indeed, these statistics are very interesting.

In won matches in the first innings, Ponting and Kallis both average around 50 and Dravid averages 57, but Tendulkar averages an amazing 62 so you can't forget his role in making big totals in the first innings. Leaving innings alone, in won matches in the past 7 years, the averages have been 56, 52, 58, 56 of the four batsmen. In lost matches they have been 25, 37, 35, 29.

Now, instead lets see the four from the time Dravid made his debut. Ponting has an average of 45, Tendulkar, 45, Kallis 56, Dravid 39 (decimals rounded off to the nearest 100). In won matches their averages are 53, 60, 53, 51. In lost matches their averages become 26, 32, 34, 30. Interesting.

Tests are much harder to analyze but the figures are indeed interesting. Lets start with basic figures such as Test averages in won matches in the past 7 years. Ponting has an average of 70, Kallis has an average of 70, Dravid has an average of 80 and Tendulkar only has an average of 52. Interesting, to say the least.

Their averages in all matches in the same period have been 63, 48, 62, and 55. These are indeed interesting figures. Unfortunately for Tendulkar his average in lost matches goes does by 13, whereas the other's average go down by 23, 23 and 29 respectively. If you compare Tendulkar from 1996, in Tests (the time when all the other three made their debut), then Tendulkar averages 52 as opposed to 58, 57 and 55 of the other 3. In won matches, his average actually goes down by 2 and becomes 50, whereas Dravid's becomes 70. Ponting and Kallis have an average of 63 and 60 in won matches throughout their career.

In lost matches Tendulkar averages 41 (a difference of 11), Ponting 39 (a difference of 19), Kallis 36 (a difference of 21) and Dravid actually averages only 24 (a difference of 31). I didn't use the Lost/Won principle throughout Tendulkar's career as India won precious few matches during 1989-1996 so the stats will make him look worse.

After these statistics, I think even you will agree that Tendulkar hasn't been at his best in the past few years. Statistics aren't everything, but like it or not, they do seem to imply that Dravid is much more of a team man than Tendulkar.

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