Another comparision of statistics

I recently read an article on the decline of Tendulkar, particularly during the last 7 years or so. I always used to think that Sachin plays a lot for himself and not the team, which was reinforced by the collection of going out in the 90's. But then I decided to use the admirable Cricinfo Statsguru and check out a few facts myself.
Lets see ODI's first.

As an index of comparision, I used Ricky Ponting as many old timers constantly mark him out as the best batsman in the world currently. I also put Jack Kallis and the writer's own favourite, Rahul Dravid for good measure. Also, I've only taken matches against the top 8 teams. (ie: not Bangladesh and Zimbabwe) Lets see how these four compare against each other while chasing totals (ie: batting in the second innings) in the last 7 years.

Ponting has 2098 runs at an average of 44.63 with 5 centuries and 12 half centuries. Tendulkar has 2442 runs at an average of 38.15 with 2 hundreds and 17 50's.
Kallis has 2472 runs at an average of 49.44 with 5 hundreds and 15 50's.Dravid has 2573 runs at an average of 39.58 with 2 hudnreds and 22 fifties.
Tendulkar seems to be the worst of the lot but these statistics hide not outs. The not outs in order have been 16, 7, 18, 13.

With Dravid, Ponting and Kallis as one down players, it is obviously easier for them to remain not out as compared to an opener. And the 17 fifties hide 4 90+ scores. Dravid has only one 80+ fifty. So, there doesn't seem to be anything to suggest that Tendulkar isn't good while chasing. But there remains the crucial aspect of winning the match. Unfortunately, here Tendulkar fails. He just has an average of 45.13 in chasing matches which India won with half the hundreds and half the fifties. Ponting has an amazing average of 66.96 with the same amount of hundreds and only 1 less half century. Kallis has an average of 66.24 with 2 less hundreds and 3 less fifties. Whereas Dravid has an averaeg of 57.38 with the same amount of hundreds and 7 less fifties. Indeed, these statistics are very interesting.

In won matches in the first innings, Ponting and Kallis both average around 50 and Dravid averages 57, but Tendulkar averages an amazing 62 so you can't forget his role in making big totals in the first innings. Leaving innings alone, in won matches in the past 7 years, the averages have been 56, 52, 58, 56 of the four batsmen. In lost matches they have been 25, 37, 35, 29.

Now, instead lets see the four from the time Dravid made his debut. Ponting has an average of 45, Tendulkar, 45, Kallis 56, Dravid 39 (decimals rounded off to the nearest 100). In won matches their averages are 53, 60, 53, 51. In lost matches their averages become 26, 32, 34, 30. Interesting.

Tests are much harder to analyze but the figures are indeed interesting. Lets start with basic figures such as Test averages in won matches in the past 7 years. Ponting has an average of 70, Kallis has an average of 70, Dravid has an average of 80 and Tendulkar only has an average of 52. Interesting, to say the least.

Their averages in all matches in the same period have been 63, 48, 62, and 55. These are indeed interesting figures. Unfortunately for Tendulkar his average in lost matches goes does by 13, whereas the other's average go down by 23, 23 and 29 respectively. If you compare Tendulkar from 1996, in Tests (the time when all the other three made their debut), then Tendulkar averages 52 as opposed to 58, 57 and 55 of the other 3. In won matches, his average actually goes down by 2 and becomes 50, whereas Dravid's becomes 70. Ponting and Kallis have an average of 63 and 60 in won matches throughout their career.

In lost matches Tendulkar averages 41 (a difference of 11), Ponting 39 (a difference of 19), Kallis 36 (a difference of 21) and Dravid actually averages only 24 (a difference of 31). I didn't use the Lost/Won principle throughout Tendulkar's career as India won precious few matches during 1989-1996 so the stats will make him look worse.

After these statistics, I think even you will agree that Tendulkar hasn't been at his best in the past few years. Statistics aren't everything, but like it or not, they do seem to imply that Dravid is much more of a team man than Tendulkar.

A comparision of statistics

Well, I really like to compare the statistics of Ponting, Lara and Tendulkar. Ponting, being the youngest has 193 innings. Lets see Lara and Tendulkar when they had 193 innings and compare the three.

Tendulkar had 9879 runs at an average of 57.43 with 34 hundreds, 45 fifties and 21 not outs.

Lara had 9993 runs at an average of 53.43 with 26 hundreds, 45 fifties and 6 not outs.

Now watch how close Ponting is to these two, specially Tendulkar.

Ponting has 9776 runs at an average of 58.53, with 34 hundreds, 39 fifties and 26 not outs.

He is just a hundred runs or so from the two and will need 224 runs in his next two innings if he wants to equal Lara and Tendulkar's record of making 10000 runs in 195 innings. Thats quite unlikely. Incidentally, however, Tendulkar was around the same age when he played 193 innings. So Ponting should run Tendulkar close in making most runs. It all depends no who retires when.

In one days of course, I thought Tendulkar is the undisputed master. Ponting can't even come close. But he manages to come closer than I thought.

Tendulkar had 11, 491 at 44.43 after 286

Ponting has 11, 023 at 43.91

Of course, his recent batting slump hasn't helped or if he had batted in this series as he normally does he would have been 11, 200. But he still is pretty close. Tendulkar, by the way had 33 hundreds by then whereas Ponting has 26, his fifty conversion rate isn't as good. In Tests, he has a pretty good chance of beating Tendulkar. In ODI's Tendulkar had played 286 innings by July 2002, which is almost 6 years back, Ponting is 2 years younger than him, so he'll have to play atleast 4 years more than Tendulkar. At a Ponting fan's most optimistic, Tendulkar will retire in a year or so, but I doubt Ponting will stick around in ODI's till 40.

So Tendulkar's ODI record remains as unbreakable as Murali's 723 and both Murali and Tendulkar aren't even finished yet.